A weather (disaster) report for July 2nd, 2007

I have not turned on a television set for several years, and so I am unaware of how television media are reporting upon the unfolding disasters building in the United States, but it is my perception that the news sources, based upon their internet presence, are underreporting the nature of the unfolding situation. Therefore I thought that I would do a little reporting of my own just to ensure that people do understand what is going on.





A severe weather system has parked itself over the Southern planes and has been immobile for over a month and has been dumping record breaking rain over the region. It is not forecast to move from its position any time soon, and it continues to spread. The image above shows the extent of the flooding, with the brighter green areas showing the regions in danger of 'flash flooding'. Rivers throughout the area are busting their banks, with more rivers forecast to enter flood stage during the coming week. Roads are being washed out and urban areas are experiencing street flooding, most notably in major urban areas such as Dallas and Oklahoma City. The roads around the Bush ranch near Crawford were washed out, and it would appear that with the flood waters continuing to build that George Bush will be forced to take all his future vacations in Maine as his ranch is flooded out. Dozens of roads and highways in Kansas have been closed due to washouts. Numerous rivers have broken past records for flood crest levels and the constant downpours are still forecast to continue with no relief in sight.

This area of the country is being subjected to nonstop rain and flooding thunderstorms, and has been breaking records for the longest period of weeks of nonstop rain. As one example, it thunderstormed for 17 consecutive days nonstop in Oklahoma, City. The ground is already saturated and the rivers in the area are already several feet above flood stage or about to bust their banks, and to make matters worse, the hurricane season is upon us, and the climatogists tell us that the developing weather pattern indicates the approach of a very busy hurricane season, which will cause overwhelming floods, since the region is already being saturated by this immobile storm system that continues to pump moisture into the southern plains from the tropics.

There is also a record breaking heat wave beginning to build in the western half of the nation. This indicates a very busy wild fire season about to begin in the west. The map on the lower right shows the effect of accumulated rought upon the region, which is already experiencing 'high' (yellow) to 'very high' (orange) to 'extreme' (red) fire conditions, which will now be made worse by the spreading heat wave heading north.

The emerging weather pattern has been seen in the past, most notably during the 1930s, and is linked not to 'global warming', but rather to a large scale cooling of the Pacific ocean. When the Pacific Ocean cools the result is a very bad hurricane season in the Atlantic as well as blistering heat waves in the Western United States.

Just below the drought image, is a graphic showing two tropical waves currently present in the Atlantic Ocean. The Jet Stream has pushed North, bringing blistering Sahara Desert air up into Europe and causing a terrible heat wave and many fires. At the same time this Northerly Jet Stream, which is also responsible for the building heat wave in the western United States, is also keeping the dry Sahara air hundreds of miles North of the tropical waves, and wind shear is minimal. The climatoligists say that it would be unusual for tropical waves to form hurricanes out in the Atlantic during the month of July (this usually does not beging to happen until sometime in August, with July hurricanes more likely to form in the Gulf of Mexico or in the Atlantic region near Florida and Cuba). However the wave on the far right of the graphic is already showing organization and is beginning to spin, and my past observation of waves that form off the coast of Africa is that it is quite typical for these waves to pass like a thread through a needle between florida and cuba and then enter into the Gulf of Mexico where they would then pose a threat for catastrophic flooding in a region already being pounded by nonstop severe thunderstorms by the stationary system that has remained parked over the southern plains. These waves are steered by the High Pressure system in the Atlantic and as is typically the case given its current configuration this High Pressure system would steer any developing hurricane throught the eye of the needle and into the Gulf of Mexico.





For those of you unfamiliar with hurricane graphics I have circled the tropical wave in red. It is worth noting that another tropical wave is currently forming off the coast of Africa, as you can see on the right of the image. I have also attempted to draw a line using the mouse showing how the effect of the large Atlantic High is to steer any possible hurricane. Currently the High System in the eastern United States combined with the ever present Atlantic High would steer a hurricane into the Gulf and then right into the area of Texas and then into the flooded southern plains. The reason for this pattern is that the Atlantic High will steer the hurricane westward and then in a northerly direction while the steering of the continental high would push the hurricane down and towards the west, preventing the Hurricane from being steered up the eastern coast of the United States and instead forcing it into the Gulf of Mexico. This is a typical pattern of highs that results in hurricanes passing into the Gulf. Where a hurricane would go, should one form, would then depend upon the position of systems on the American continent when the hurricane crossed the Atlantic (since the Atlantic High is persistent and ever present and does not change that much). The pattern that exists at the present would steer a hurricane into the absolutely worst possible location, the already badly flooded southern plains region.

The wave off of AFrica is slow moving (currently moving west at about 5 miles per hour). The wave closer to Americas is currently showing less development (less spin).

Meanwhile the flood system, which has been spreading northward, is now forecast to also begin spreading eastward, dumping rain onto the regions of the South east which are currently in the grips of severe to exceptional drought conditions. This suggests further severe flooding, for when an area has been baked to hard pan by drought and then is hit by the type of flooding rains this storm system brings, the result is massive run off, as the hard pan is like cement and cannot accept the rains, and this then leads to heavy flooding and more rivers and streams bursting over their banks. The system is forecast to begin spreading westward into these drought stricken regions during the fourth of July week.

It is also worth noting here that one of the reasons for the immobility of the flooding system is the immobility of the high which is acting like a pump for tropical moisture. What we see here is the creation of an immobile conveyor belt consisting of high pressure systems which if it continues to remain in place would serve to pump one Atlantic hurricane after another into already badly flooded regions.

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