Will Washington bomb Iran?

I have been keeping a finger in the air, checking to see which way the wind is blowing, and it would seem to me that a consensus has developed, and most observers have drawn the conclusion that there is no way that Washington will bomb Iran.

I thought I might reformulate the question. ‘Will the Bush administration preside over the global collapse of American Imperialism?’ If Washington does not bomb Iran then it is the beginning of the end of the half century of the global dominance of American capitalism, and as everyone should understand, there has never been a more aggressive, even reckless, pro-capitalist administration in American history.

It is my conclusion that it is only logical to conclude that Washington will get around to bombing Iran, since Washington really doesn’t have a choice in the matter, since the choice confronting Washington is to sink or to swim, and given a choice such as this, of course Washington will be found swimming. Washington must first deal with certain political difficulties that make the bombing of Iran difficult, or, failing that, Washington must proceed to bomb Iran and then deal with the evolving political situation on the fly. It is because the political situation is currently so difficult for Washington at the moment that has caused this emerging consensus to develop whereby people now assume that Washington cannot bomb Iran, even though everyone knows that Washington is very determined to bomb Iran, but it is assumed that despite the obvious determination displayed by Washington, Iran cannot be bombed because the political circumstances are not favorable and therefore do not permit the bombing of Iran.

There is only one reason why Washington would not bomb Iran that I can imagine, and that would be this difficult political situation confronting Washington. Opposing this are the long list of items each of which favors the bombing of Iran, and given that the political situation which will confront Washington in the future will be even worse than it is now if Iran is not bombed, it would seem to me that Iran will be bombed, for only in this way does the possibility exist that a more politically acceptable situation might develop in the future.

The first factor that greatly favors the bombing of Iran is American military power, in particular the revolutionary changes which have transformed American air power in recent years. People may not be aware of it but one of the most important developments that has occurred in recent years, which is the product of the large increase in American military spending, is the rapid progress made in the development of American air power. American air power is now much more formidable than it was even just five years ago when Washington invaded Iraq. Can air power alone win a war? From the time air craft were first employed as weapons of war military theorists were predicting that the time would come when air power alone would prove to be such a decisive factor that it would be possible to fight and win a war from the air and the traditional use of invading ground forces would no longer be necessary. This was never true in the past, but the time has come when the predictions of these visionary theorists will be demonstrated for the first time in actual warfare. It is now possible for Washington to completely destroy Iran as a military power, with most of the damage being done immediately within the opening hours of the offensive, and with the remaining days of that war being devoted to mopping up operations. While I would expect an American war with Iran to last at least a few days, perhaps even a week, most of the real damage would be done instantly during that first opening salvo, at which time Iran will be hurled violently to the ground and crushed in an instant in one of the most astonishing displays of military power the world has ever witnessed. Nothing like it has ever been seen before on this planet, and the upcoming bombing of Iran will give new meaning to the term ‘shock and awe.’

At the present time Washington is regarded around the world as a paper tiger. Following the humiliating display of Washington’s weakness in Iraq there has been an international upsurge of rebellion against American Imperialism and it has even swept through Washington’s backyard in Latin American, where the flames are burning with a noticeable intensity. Around the world the people of many nations have been inspired by the war of liberation in Iraq and with renewed determination and growing courage they are rising up against global capitalism and its neo-liberal agenda which has done so much damage to nations which were already in a shambles due to the deleterious affect effects of the age of imperialist colonialism and thus hardly needed another really good milking in recent decades.

No imperialist empire has ever had the military means to control a vast empire, and yet empires were created and they persisted. It is important that an imperialist empire present a credible threat so that the colonies understand that any rebellion will be met with a sure and certain retribution. The Romans understood this principle, and they confronted each rebellion that arose in the empire systematically, and even though they were unable to confront a wide spread rebellion they were able to concentrate their forces and crush insurrections one at a time. The invasion of Iraq has been called the greatest foreign policy debacle in American history, and the principle reason for this sorry state of affairs is that Washington has lost all credibility as a global power and the results of this new development can be seen all around us as a global revolution is now germinating, with the most obvious signs of the pressure building up from below being most obvious in Latin America. The Monroe Doctrine has now been run through the paper shredder as the Bush administration presides over the disaster in Iraq and this must be particularly galling in the environs of Washington, especially when you consider that America is now the greatest military power that has ever existed on this planet. To possess such overwhelming military superiority and yet to be seen in public as a paraplegic being wheeled about in a wheelchair must really stick in the craw of Washington. Since no military deterrent is effective unless it is demonstrated it therefore logically follows that given the increasing political difficulties facing Washington, the solution lies in the sudden shocking destruction of Iran which will then fill the world with awe. Since the political difficulties facing Washington will only continue to compound should Iran escape a good bombing, it logically follows that the political difficulties that confront Washington today, and are the only thing that has spared Iran so far, are the lesser political evil when compared to possibility of reaping dividends and restoring the balance which has been lost, with the situation continuing to deteriorate the longer that humiliating debacle in Iraq continues to fester like a puss filled sore.

As we all know the American trade deficit has ballooned and is approaching a trillion dollars a year. This is unsustainable. One very unpalatable solution to this problem would be to send the American dollar down the toilet, which would make imports more expensive, but would do so by sending the dollar down the crapper. The end result of this process would have to be the rise of the European Union as the new global hegemon of the 21st century with Washington left playing the role of the junior partner and following the lead of some other power, the age of American dominance having lasted only for about half a century, making the American imperialist empire one of the shortest lived in history. One solution to this problem would be to artificially make the American dollar the world’s reserve currency by ensuring that all oil transactions take place in American dollars. In this way the planet can be forced to fund America’s deficits not because it makes good economic sense to do so, but rather because there would be no alternative. Once again this requires the bombing of Iran, since Washington must dominate the Middle Eastern oil fields if the American dollar is to continue to be the world’s reserve currency while at the same time it becomes more and more worthless due to the internal collapse of American capitalism as the world’s leading industrial power.

American capitalism has taken one to many bullets during the perpetual gunfight down at the OK Corral that we know as ‘capitalism’. For this reason American capitalism has gone into irreversible decline and has become seriously unstable and a situation is now seen to exist which cannot continue forever. While there are many who wish to go into denial and speculators continue to pump up the Wall Street stock market, just as they did in the months prior to 1929, it should be obvious that there is most likely a hard landing rather than a soft landing somewhere in the immediate future, for such a deleteriously unstable situation cannot continue perpetually. The housing bubble is now collapsing, and it was this which kept American capitalism afloat for several years, as it subsisted on a flood of every cheaper dollars which came rolling off the printing presses to fuel a mortgage boom and a spending spree. After credit is exhausted, as it was during the mid 1920s there is very little left for the doctors to do to keep the failing patient hooked up to life support, and therefore the prognosis must be that death is imminent. Protectionism cannot work, for while it might jump start some manufacturing it will not increase exports since it is impossible to export to other countries when those countries have also put up trade barriers.

Given the intractable contradictions facing American capitalism no easy solution is available, and for this reason we see preparations being made for the possibility of a crash landing, and here I am referring to the gutting of democracy, the shredding of the Constitution of the United States, eerie signs of large gulag type concentration camps being constructed on American soil, the trampling under foot of the Bill of Rights, the concentration of dictatorial powers in the executive branch including such unheard of measures as the denial of the right to a fair trial and arrest and indefinite detention subject only to the order of the executive branch. All of these measures are being justified as part of some ‘war against the terrorists’, but the true terrorists are the American people who are liable to become quite unruly following a crash landing of American capitalism, and thus will have to be ruled over by fascist fist while those capitalists over on Wall Street attempt to ride out the storm. It is for these reasons that there has been no serious opposition to any of these measures, not from the courts, and certainly not from America’s second capitalist party, the Democrats, for every one of the powerful elites in America understands just how dangerously unstable American capitalism has become and they understand that it is required that America abandon democracy and become transformed into a fascist state so that capitalism can survive the fury that will follow the ruinous debacle of the crash landing that seems to be so inevitable to those in power that it requires a very public and open turn to police state methods in that country,. All this is taking place in advance of the coming crash landing, since it is appears that the powerful in that country prefer to be proactive when it comes to protecting their wealth and power.

Germany was once divided into little fiefdoms ruled over by feudal landlords and small war lords, and it was only during the latter part of the 19th century that Bismarck launched an internal war of conquest and fused the many little German speaking principalities into one large nation that we know now as Germany. By the time Bismarck had completed this task, the capitalist imperialist powers had already carved up the planet into imperialist colonies, and the result was another one of those capitalist boom cycles as cheap imports of raw materials led to an expansion and growth in the profits generated by capitalism. Germany was late to the party, and thus the future of German capitalism looked pretty grim, for Germany was a nation dependant on imports with no raw materials of its own, and this lack of imperialist colonies led to an intractable imbalance in the capitalist system which then led to two world wars, with Germany, the country which was facing ruin in the future, being the aggressor both times. Hitler’s purpose in the Second World War was to restore the equilibrium of the global capitalist system by seizing imperialist colonies for Germany by conquering Russian and her satellite states.

The capitalist system consists of a perpetual gunfight down at the OK Corral, as the economy is organized to resemble a chaotic feud between various elite gun slingers. For this reason capitalism always operates at a certain low level violence even at the best of times, with gun slingers robbing stage coaches and stealing ‘market share’ or kicking down the doors of some saloon and doing a ‘hostile takeover’ and so on. What we can learn from history is that when a capitalist power takes a few to many bullets and begins to fall, the level of violence only increases and the low level gun fire which is a chronic characteristic of a long running feud such as is that capitalist system, then erupts into warfare as the feuding between capitalists builds in intensity and soon enough we see failing capitalist powers such as America or Germany trashing the Geneva Conventions and trampling underfoot Constitutional and International Laws as that failing capitalist nation attempts to shoot its way out of some trap in some dead end back alley down at the OK Corral.

For this reason, the lessons of history teach us that Washington will bomb Iran, for just as it was idiotic for Hitler to invade Poland and begin the march eastward, and so embroil Germany in a reckless war with every other imperialist power on the planet, and yet Hitler invaded Poland, it would be rational to think Washington must and therefore will bomb Iran, for it would make no sense for Washington to avoid bombing Iran. Doing nothing is no solution at all, and so therefore doing something is required and the options are quite limited for Washington at this time. A good bombing of Iran might also provide some distraction from the debacle in Iraq and from the impending danger signs of a crash of American capitalism, while control over the world’s oil resources might provide Washington with some breathing space now that the credit fueled spending spree is exhausted. In the 1920s, once the credit fueled expansion was exhausted the crash followed promptly afterwards, and so therefore Washington needs another alternative, and there does not appear to be any other alternative after credit is exhausted, and so therefore the Bush administration can either just stand pat and await the crash of American capitalism, or the Bush administration can attempt to solve the problem. Political difficulties inherent in the bombing of Iran will not stop the Bush administration, and certainly protest movements will not stop this upcoming war, and the Democrats in congress have also prudently withdrawn all their objections, and this demonstrates that they are being sensible and prudent and are allowing ‘all options to remain on the table’. .

While it is true that bombing Iran would increase global tensions between Washington and the other imperialist powers, history teaches us that Washington must bomb Iran for the alternative is for the Bush administration to simply sit upon its thumb while American capitalism collapses at home and American imperialism collapses abroad, and that is not very likely to happen.

So then the question is not, ‘Will Washington bomb Iran?’ but rather we should be asking ‘When will Washington bomb Iran?’ I am amazed that Washington has waited this long. Apparently Washington is waiting for an opportune political situation to develop, but that is very unlikely, and now with the consensus being that Washington will not bomb Iran, we see every country in the Middle East visiting Geneva and announcing their intentions as the entire Middle East prepares to go nuclear. Meanwhile we see Washington holed up in some dead end back alley down at the OK Corral, unable to shoot its way out of that corner, blood pouring out of all those bullet holes, while limbs are developing gangrene, for it has been so long since American capitalism has seen a doctor. At the same time we see Washington firing off a pop gun pistol when Washington actually holds in reserve a machine gun and a howitzer and has the ability to level that OK Corral with just a few shots. It would be just a matter of time before that bleeding badly wounded gunslinger finally loses patience as with a great roar Billy the Kid tosses aside that useless Smith and Wesson and brings out the Uzi and the Howitzer.

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